Four of five lean towards lower prices; wheat flour leans steady
Four reports point to lower prices and one to a steady price.
| Raw material | Central question | Most likely scenario, and why | Scenario A: price lower | Scenario B: price unchanged | Scenario C: price higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chocolate (cocoa)for chocolate | Will cocoa cost less, the same or more over the next 12 months than today's GBP 3,832 per tonne? | A (lower), 5 of 8Most signals point to lower cocoa prices; two see no change, one sees higher prices. | +9.1Lower | -2.6Same level | -14.4Higher |
| Coffeefor roasted coffee | Will the arabica coffee price an example roaster pays be lower, the same or higher over the next six months? | A (lower), 6 of 10Record Brazilian shipments, a weak real and rising stocks pull down; tight nearby supply pushes up. | +17.2Lower | +3.7Same level | -9.8Higher |
| Maizefor native corn starch | Will maize cost more, less or the same in six months? | A (lower), 6 of 13Lower prices lead by a single signal over higher prices: a narrow call. | +3.3Lower | -3.7Same level | -10.7Higher |
| Sugarfor white sugar (EU) | Will sugar cost an example EU buyer less, the same or more over the next 12 months? | A (lower), 5 of 12A weak real, cheaper crude oil and more Indian sugar outweigh the short EU crop. | +18.5Lower | -0.2Same level | -18.9Higher |
| Wheat flour (milling wheat)for wheat flour | Will milling wheat cost more, less or the same in three months? | B (same level), 5 of 12Prices near today's level lead by one signal over higher prices. | +9.5Lower | +1.9Same level | -5.8Higher |
Gold frame: most likely scenario. Margin effect = change in the margin of an example buyer of each product, in points of the selling price (+2.0: EUR 2 more of every EUR 100 of sales stays as margin), with the selling price unchanged. The cost structures are illustrative templates. Signal counts are shares of indicators, not statistical chances.
The Margin Calls of this week
- Chocolate (cocoa)Will cocoa cost less, the same or more over the next 12 months than today's GBP 3,832 per tonne?Read the Margin Call →
- CocoaCocoa: is the three-week fall here to stay?Read the Margin Call →
- CoffeeWill the arabica coffee price an example roaster pays be lower, the same or higher over the next six months?Read the Margin Call →
- MaizeWill maize cost more, less or the same in six months?Read the Margin Call →
- SugarWill sugar cost an example EU buyer less, the same or more over the next 12 months?Read the Margin Call →
- WheatWheat: do grain costs ease or bite back?Read the Margin Call →
- Wheat flour (milling wheat)Will milling wheat cost more, less or the same in three months?Read the Margin Call →
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